Blame It On The Weather

About a week ago, I was on an impromptu business trip to Seoul, and as I stepped out of the plane in my light trousers and Uniqlo linen shirt, I met a wall of cold. Immovable.
My first thought was: “Uuh, this is brisk weather!”

I went through all the security processes as you do, and before heading out, I decided to put on my cotton pullover and the overcoat I had brought with me. All happy with my clothing decision, I headed out to catch an Uber to the hotel… instead, I almost caught a cold.

My ears were freezing, steam blowing from my mouth as I paced up and down the sidewalk; I could barely hold the phone in my hand for more than a few seconds (I had not brought gloves). As I muttered some truly impressive blasphemy at the sight of –6 °C, it dawned on me: I am not prepared for this.
I had assumed January in Seoul would be similar to Tokyo, so no need for lots of layers. I could have checked the weather forecast, this was entirely avoidable: I just didn’t think of it!

Later on, in the warm comfort of the taxi, I started thinking about how a very cold winter can have a major impact on farming as a whole. And, of course, on winemaking.
There has been quite a bit of snow in Italy this year, and I’ve seen images from our producers of vineyards blanketed in white. Fascinating… and yet terrifying.

Will the wine be good in 2026?
How do they protect those beautiful plants?
What actually happens to vines in extreme weather?

Now, on the plane back home, I decided to write about weather conditions, extreme phenomena, protection methods, and what all this really means once the wine reaches your glass.

The Perfect Weather

Is there such a thing? Short answer: no.
Longer answer: there is appropriate weather, depending on where, what, and why.

Vines are incredibly resilient plants: they are sturdy, tough, and designed in such a way that they give the best results when they suffer a little. But they are also deeply sensitive to their environment. Temperature, sunlight, rainfall, wind, humidity, and seasonal variation all influence how a vine grows, how grapes ripen, and ultimately how a wine tastes.

Generally speaking, vines thrive when:

• Winters are cold enough to allow dormancy
• Spring is mild, avoiding late frosts
• Summers are warm but not scorching
• Rainfall is present but controlled
• Autumn is dry and stable, allowing slow, even ripening

Too much of anything and it all quickly shifts from beneficial stress to existential threat.
And that balance is becoming harder to maintain.

Too Cold, Too Hot, Too Wet, Too Dry

Before going any further, a few technical terms are worth clarifying.

• Budbreak: the moment in spring when dormant vines wake up and begin to grow new shoots.
• Phenolic maturity: when tannins, colour, and flavours in the grapes are fully developed, not just sugar levels.
• Disease pressure: describes the risk of fungal diseases and rot, usually linked to humidity and prolonged rain.

Cold: Necessary, Until It Isn’t

Cold winters are not the enemy; in fact, dormancy allows vines to rest, reset, and conserve energy. I did not know, but snow can even act as insulation, protecting root systems from sudden temperature drops. But is it all good? Nope!
The problem starts when temperatures plunge below –15 °C, when cold season starts too early or ends too late, or when a sudden wave of frost hits after budbreak (the moment when the grapes start to come out).
Late spring frost is one of the most feared events in viticulture, because young buds are fragile, and a single freezing night can wipe out an entire year’s crop.

View of the Vecchie Terre Di Montefili vineyard just two weeks ago

Heat: Ripeness vs. Overripeness

Warm summers help grapes ripen, build sugar, and develop aromas; and even in this case, excessive heat is a problem as it accelerates sugar accumulation faster than phenolic maturity, resulting in wines that are high in alcohol but lacking balance. 
Extended heatwaves can all but burn grapes, interrupt photosynthesis, force growers to harvest earlier than planned, and reduce acidity dramatically (with major impact on the final product).

Rain: Life-Giving and Destructive

Water is obiously essential, especially early in the growing cycle, but prolonged rain near harvest is a nightmare. I remember watching this French movie on a plane a while ago (First Growth, original title Premiers Crus) where the protagonist was dealing with rainstorms right during the harvest period; I almost had an anxiety attack!
As in the movie, too much rain can dilute the flavours of the grape, increase disease pressure, promote rot and mildew, and make the grape swell so much that they burst.

Drought: Stress as a Double-Edged Sword

Controlled water stress can improve concentration and quality; severe drought, however, shuts the vine down entirely.
No photosynthesis → no ripening = survival mode.

What Keep Winemakers Awake at Night

Some weather phenomena are not just inconvenient, they may very well be catastrophic depending on the intensity and duration. Let’s look at some of them.

Hailstorms: A few minutes of hail can destroy months of work. Leaves are shredded, grapes smashed, and the vines themselves wounded or torn.
Prolonged Rain: A rainy year from spring through harvest invites fungal diseases and forces growers into constant vineyard management, spraying, and tough harvest decisions.
Drought and Heatwaves: Southern Italian regions have always dealt with heat, but extremes are becoming more frequent and more intense. Water management is now a strategic priority, though if done incorrectly it can do harm as well.
Frost: Still the most emotionally devastating event for growers. Frost doesn’t negotiate.

To avoid things going south, however, winegrowers don’t just pray and hope for the best. Unsurprisingly, there’s a surprising amount of science, experience, and ingenuity involved. Centuries of knowledge, attempts, failures and successes have given us a broad range of measures from the most traditional to the most advanced.

A scene from the movie Premiers Crus (2015)

Against Hail:

• Protective netting
• Vineyard layout adjustments
• Insurance (yes, really)

Against Excess Rain:

• Drainage systems
• Meticulous vineyard hygiene
• Selective harvesting

Against Heat:

• Canopy management to shade grapes
• Adjusting pruning and training systems
• Earlier harvest decisions

Against Frost:

• Wind machines to circulate warmer air
• Sprinkler systems that create insulating ice layers
• Controlled fires or heaters in extreme cases

Still, nature always gets the final word.

Climate Change

We hear a lot about global warming, and I’m sure you know by now that this is not just about rising temperatures (hello Leo!). The main impact is the unpredictability of weather phenomena.

An earlier budbreak increases the risk of dealing with a frost wave; heat spikes can alter the ripening curves, making it harder to plan harvest and production. Rainfall patterns shift year to year, with a similar impact.
Traditional “rules” are being rewritten in real time, and while some regions benefit temporarily, others struggle; generations of knowledge and learning suddenly do not apply anymore.
So growers and plants do what nature taught them to do: they adapt.

The Legendary Vintages

Despite all this, there have been and will be years when the weather aligns almost magically, and wine lovers remember them forever. A few examples:

2016 – Italy-wide brilliance
Balance, freshness, and consistency from north to south across styles.

1997 – Tuscany
A warm, generous year producing powerful yet refined Brunello, Chianti Classico, and Super Tuscans. I remember it because I tried a fantastic 1997 Brunello when it was released in 2002. Tuscan wines from that year are a keeper, though I heard there is a debate with 1999 (we had a Brunello by Argiano for our wedding dinner during pandemic).

1989 & 1990 – Piedmont
Two monumental vintages for Barolo and Barbaresco, combining structure, longevity, and elegance.

2001 – Southern Italy
Taurasi, Etna Rosso, and other southern reds showed depth, freshness, and unexpected longevity.

While there is no perfect year (and none of these was), they are widely considered to have been harmonious and unique in many ways.

So… Will the Wine Be Good in 2026?

The honest answer: we don’t know yet. And that’s OK, it’s how wine has always been, and not knowing is fine at times.
The more we dive into these topics, I hope you see how wine is agriculture before it is luxury; it is weather, soil, patience, and a little courage. Snow-covered vineyards may look dramatic (see the image above), but they are part of a cycle older than any forecast app.

Some years are generous, and some are difficult. A few are unforgettable.
Just like life.